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Robinhood Markets Inc. has launched presidential election event contracts through its subsidiary, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD), ahead of the 2024 general election. The event contracts allow users to trade based on predictions of the 2024 presidential election outcome, with contracts available for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Initially, these contracts will be accessible to a select group of customers who meet certain criteria, including U.S. citizenship.
The contracts are priced between $0.02 and $0.99, close to the market-implied percentage odds of victory for each candidate. Users can buy a maximum of 5,000 election contracts, meaning Robinhood users can score up to a $5,000 payout if they pick the winning side. The contracts will pay out on January 7-8, 2025.
The launch of these contracts comes at a critical time as the 2024 presidential race intensifies. Recent polls indicate a tight contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with both candidates leading in different surveys. However, prediction markets paint a different picture. According to Polymarket, Trump holds a 61.3% chance of winning, a significant lead over Harris’s 38.6%.
Robinhood's move into election betting follows other prediction market companies like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt. However, Robinhood is perhaps the most recognizable firm to launch election betting. The hours of operation for Robinhood’s presidential election betting market will slowly ramp up heading into the election, with trading open 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. EDT the next two days before going almost continuously from Sunday through Friday, November 8.